Standard Chartered’s global head of digital assets research, Geoffrey Kendrick, declared in a June 12 client note that bitcoin’s drop to roughly $59,000 marks the definitive cycle bottom.
The analyst pointed to a 53% decline from bitcoin’s October 2025 peak of $126,000 and said he does not expect prices to breach the $59,000 level again this cycle.
The $100K year-end target
Standard Chartered set a year-end 2026 price target of $100,000, implying roughly 70% upside from current levels near $63,000.
The bank previously held even loftier targets, including $150,000, which were adjusted downward as conditions deteriorated.
Kendrick wrote in his note:
“Winter is over. Welcome back to crypto Spring.”
He added:
“When we look back at the end of 2026 with Bitcoin at $100k we will say this was the buying zone we all wanted.”
Confirmation signals still missing
Kendrick outlined specific conditions that need to materialize before the recovery thesis gains real traction.
First, renewed ETF inflows — June 2026 has already seen more than $2 billion in outflows, a sign that institutional investors are pulling back rather than accumulating.
Second, corporate treasury purchases from companies like Strategy and its imitators.
Third, decreasing oil prices tied to a potential U.S.-Iran peace deal, which could ease inflation and give central banks room to cut rates.
Historical context for the drawdown
Bitcoin’s 53% correction is brutal by traditional standards but relatively modest compared to prior cycles.
The 2017–2018 bear market saw an 84% drawdown, while the 2021–2022 cycle delivered roughly 77%.
Leverage across exchanges has also been significantly reduced, with traders unwinding positions in what typically signals capitulation.
Standard Chartered has consistently framed each correction as a potential accumulation opportunity rather than a reason to exit.
