A recent River newsletter argues that most Americans are quietly bleeding wealth through financial products where the odds are stacked against them.
According to the report, 96% of Americans hold at least one of these five investments.
1. Leveraged ETFs
Products like TQQQ offer 3x the daily performance of an index, but they decay over time due to how daily returns compound.
River points to the Russell 2000, which rose 37.7% over five years while its 3x ETF (TNA) actually fell:
The Russell 2000 Index has risen by 37.7% over the past five years, while its 3x ETF (TNA) has fallen by 10.6%.
2. Crypto (not bitcoin)
The newsletter separates bitcoin from the broader token market, which it calls a hotbed of pump-and-dumps and insider dumping:
Of the roughly 20 million tokens launched since 2021, CoinGecko found more than half have lost 100% of their value.
River notes that Bitcoin had no company, no pre-sale, and no insider allocation, with Satoshi releasing the code publicly in January 2009. Over the past decade, bitcoin has appreciated by an average of 58% per year.
3. Prediction markets
River argues only insiders and non-betting observers benefit from platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket:
70-84% of accounts on Kalshi and Polymarket have losses, while 67% of all profits come from fewer than 2,000 accounts.
4. Options contracts
Apps push options on inexperienced traders who face steep costs:
Individuals who trade options pay for it with high fees (6.5%-11.8% per trade) and consistent losses (4% to 16% per trade).
5. Cash in a bank
With checking accounts paying under 0.1%, inflation erodes idle cash:
Since 2000, cash in the average bank account has lost more than 68% of its value.
River’s conclusion: favor long-term assets that resist inflation, such as broad stock baskets, gold, and bitcoin.
