The current Bitcoin market cycle is “dramatically” weaker than the three previous cycles, according to Alex Thorn, head of firmwide research at Galaxy.
Thorn compared price action since the April 2024 Bitcoin halving to cycles triggered in 2012, 2016, and 2020, finding that the current cycle shows significantly dampened volatility and lower upside.
Cycle-by-cycle comparison
The numbers tell a stark story across each epoch.
BTC’s price climbed roughly 9,294% during the 2012 halving cycle, reaching a high near $1,163.
The 2016 cycle produced gains of about 2,950%, topping out around $19,891.
The 2020 halving saw a price increase of about 761%.
By contrast, the all-time high above $125,000 reached on Oct. 5, 2025 was only 97% above the 2024 halving price of around $63,000.
Thorn posted on X:
“Cycle four is dramatically underperforming prior cycles. Is this the new normal, or is it the new normal until it isn’t?”
Critics point to the pre-halving all-time high
Not everyone agrees the comparison is fair.
BTC hit what was then an all-time high above $70,000 in March 2024 — a full month before the April halving — driven largely by the approval of spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds in the United States in January 2024.
Critics of Thorn’s analysis argue this historic anomaly, where BTC set a new all-time high before the halving even occurred, skewed the cycle’s apparent performance metrics.
Fidelity Digital Assets research analyst Zack Wainwright noted that previous Bitcoin bear markets saw declines between 80% and 90%, while the current cycle’s drop from $125,000 to around $60,000 represents a decline just north of 50%.
Wainwright stated:
“Bitcoin drawdowns have become less severe as volatility has declined.”
Volatility hitting historic lows
The declining Bitcoin volatility across cycles is one of the clearest signals of a maturing asset.
The 30-day Bitcoin Volatility Index spiked to 9.64% on April 2, 2020, but has not exceeded 3.11% in the current cycle — a reading last seen on Aug. 24, 2024.
The latest 30-day estimate sits at just 1.75%.
In March, VanEck CEO Jan van Eck said that BTC is close to bottoming out and expects prices to begin gradually rising again in 2026.
Van Eck stated:
“Bitcoin is forming a bottom, and I expect the price to begin gradually rising again in 2026.”
At last look, bitcoin was trading around $74,703, up nearly 5% over the past seven days, according to TradingView data.
