TD Cowen has raised its price target on Strategy (MSTR) to $400, maintaining a buy rating on the stock while flagging accelerating bitcoin purchases and a cleaner balance sheet as the two main drivers of its bullish case.
With shares trading around $166, the new target implies more than 140% upside from current levels.
Bitcoin accumulation outpacing dilution
Analysts noted that Strategy has already acquired more bitcoin in 2025 than TD Cowen had originally modeled for the company.
Between May 11 and May 17 alone, the company bought 24,869 BTC for roughly $2.01 billion, bringing its total holdings to 843,738 BTC purchased at a total cost of approximately $64 billion.
TD Cowen highlighted that bitcoin per 1,000 fully diluted shares has risen to 2.21 as of May 17, up from 1.95 at the end of 2025, calling the trajectory impressive and noting that BTC accumulation continues to outpace share issuance even as dilution increases.
Strategy now holds more than 4% of all bitcoin that will ever exist.
Balance sheet improvements
The second pillar of TD Cowen’s thesis is an improving credit profile.
The brokerage argued that Strategy has been lowering its future refinancing risks and building greater financial flexibility, largely by funding recent purchases through preferred shares rather than common stock issuance.
In Q2 alone, the company raised roughly $1.95 billion through preferred shares and deployed most of it into bitcoin.
Stock remains volatile and divisive
Despite the bullish call, MSTR has declined roughly 60% over the past 12 months and sits more than 63% below its 52-week high of $455.90.
The stock tracks bitcoin closely, and when bitcoin fell toward $76,700 earlier this year, MSTR dropped around 7% in the same period.
Strategy also recently agreed to buy back $1.5 billion in convertible notes, which raised some investor concern about how those obligations would be funded — with cash, stock, or potentially bitcoin itself.
