Glassnode’s latest market report argues that Bitcoin’s bottom is still forming, and that this week the market finally started to push back against the sellers who defined the bear phase.
Macro backdrop shifts
According to Glassnode, Bitcoin’s pressure this quarter has been a real-rate story rather than a risk-off one.
Ten-year real yields climbed to a 2026 high near 2.4%, while the dollar held above its 200-day average since May.
Yet the broader risk complex shows no stress, with equities near highs and volatility subdued.
Tuesday’s soft inflation print moved Bitcoin more than any other major asset, its best reaction to good news in weeks. Glassnode noted:
“A market this eager to rally on one inflation print is a market where sellers are spent and buyers are waiting for a reason.”
The report also flagged that Bitcoin’s correlation with US equities is easing while its inverse link to the dollar deepens, meaning liquidity is now the main driver.
Sellers running out
Glassnode said long-term holder capitulation, the main source of sell pressure all year, set its cycle peak two weeks ago and has now turned down:
“For the first time this cycle, the metric that defines the bottoming process is falling instead of rising.”
Profit-taking has dried up, and broad buying across small and large wallets absorbed the June lows.
Confirmation still missing
US spot ETF redemptions have slowed but not reversed, and derivatives traders are unwinding downside bets without adding spot exposure.
Glassnode concluded:
“The base is built; the follow-through is not.”
The key resistance sits at the Short-Term Holder Cost Basis near $69K.
