Bitcoin fell below $60,000 last Friday for the first time since late 2024, capping a week of nearly 20% losses and bringing the total drawdown from its all-time high last October to roughly 50%.
River’s latest newsletter identifies two primary forces behind the selloff, along with several compounding factors.
Doubts about bitcoin’s biggest buyer
For most of the past year, Strategy has dominated bitcoin demand, purchasing more than 171,000 BTC so far in 2026—roughly 1,075 per day—largely funded with credit costing about $1.7 billion annually in interest.
With only enough cash to cover ~7 months of interest payments, the company faces a choice:
Issue new stock or sell bitcoin.
Last week it sold 32 BTC—tiny in dollar terms, but as River noted:
“It broke the assumption that Strategy is a buyer that never sells.”
River’s core argument is that last week’s decline reflects a specific fear: bitcoin’s largest buyer may be about to become a far less aggressive one.
As they put it:
“Without strong investor demand for its stock, Strategy may be unable to buy bitcoin at anywhere near the pace so far in 2026.”
Whether through an inability to raise fresh capital or a need to cover interest, the market is now pricing in the possibility that Strategy’s demand dries up.
AI is pulling capital away
SpaceX is set to go public Friday in what could be the largest IPO in history, aiming to raise roughly $75 billion.
Large IPOs act like a vacuum on market liquidity, and bitcoin is especially exposed because many of the same growth-seeking investors eyeing AI and tech listings would otherwise be buying bitcoin.
Other contributing factors
Leveraged traders were liquidated out of more than $2 billion in bitcoin last week as prices fell.
U.S. spot bitcoin ETFs saw 13 straight days of withdrawals totaling about $4.4 billion—the longest selling streak since they launched.
Despite the severity, River pointed out this downturn has been shallower than past bear markets due to growing institutional adoption and declining volatility:
“The reasons people own bitcoin haven’t changed. It’s the scarcest asset in a world of endless money creation.”
