Onramp Research has released a new report titled Back to Basics, arguing that bitcoin trading at about half of its late-2025 high, even as equities and gold hover near records, is more opportunity than warning.
A shallow drawdown by bitcoin’s standards
The report notes that a decline of roughly one half is comparatively mild against bitcoin’s own history, with every major bear market before it running deeper and each followed, in time, by a new all-time high.
Sentiment currently sits in territory the fear and greed index associates with fear, and the price rests near its long-term moving average.
The report states:
“This history does not rule out a further decline, which is always possible. It does indicate that investors who purchased while bitcoin stood well below its peak, during periods of pronounced pessimism, have generally been rewarded for their patience.”
The present cycle sits about seven months past its peak and roughly half below it, an earlier and shallower stage than equivalent points in prior cycles.
Real bitcoin versus paper claims
Much of the report focuses on the distinction between owning bitcoin and owning a claim on it, such as a fund share or exchange balance.
On the recent stress among bitcoin-linked credit products, the report observes:
“The holders of a wrapper under strain discover that exposure to bitcoin’s price is not equivalent to possession of the asset.”
It describes bitcoin as a bearer asset and outside money:
“Bitcoin is a bearer asset, which means that control of the keys constitutes ownership in full, with no account to be approved and no external party able to reverse, freeze, or reclaim the holding.”
A paper claim, it argues, reintroduces the very counterparty dependency bitcoin was built to remove.
The case for steady accumulation
The report favors dollar-cost averaging over timing entries.
It writes:
“An accumulating investor need not have bought bitcoin at its peak to be in profit.”
Measured over five years, this approach applied to bitcoin has compared favorably with the same method used on cash, the S&P 500, and gold.
On timing, the report concludes:
“The moments least comfortable to buy into have, with the benefit of several years, frequently proven the most consequential.”
