CryptoQuant is warning that bitcoin’s recent rally is running into growing headwinds, with multiple onchain indicators pointing toward rising selling pressure.
Bitcoin climbed above $76,000 on Tuesday, its highest level since early February, driven by earlier undervaluation, a temporary easing in the U.S.-Iran conflict, and a weaker U.S. dollar.
Exchange inflows spike to multi-month high
As the price moved higher, hourly bitcoin exchange inflows surged to around 11,000 BTC — the highest reading since late December 2025.
CryptoQuant head of research Julio Moreno noted the price is now testing the traders’ onchain realized price at $76,800, a key bear-market resistance level. He wrote:
“This band capped the January 2026 bear market rally precisely at this level before prices reversed lower, and the same dynamic may repeat if selling pressure builds from current levels.”
Moreno added that the lower band near $67,600 now acts as the primary near-term support if resistance holds.
Large holders driving the inflows
The spike in exchange inflows is being led by large holders. The mean bitcoin exchange deposit surged to 2.25 BTC — the highest daily reading since July 2024 — driven by individual deposits to Binance exceeding 1,000 BTC.
Moreno drew a direct parallel to earlier market stress:
“This pattern mirrors dynamics observed in January 2026, when the average deposit peaked at almost 2 BTC ahead of bitcoin’s sharp decline from $100,000 to $60,000.”
Profit-taking not yet at peak
Despite the warning signs, daily realized profits remain around $500 million, still below the $1 billion threshold that has historically marked significant profit-taking spikes during bear markets.
Moreno concluded:
“If bitcoin sustains above $76,000 or pushes higher toward the $76,800 traders’ realized price, daily realized profits could accelerate meaningfully toward and above the $1 billion mark, adding further selling pressure and increasing the probability of a rally stall or reversal.”
