Bitcoin hovered near $74,000 at Wednesday’s Wall Street open as US stocks edged higher on reports that the US and Iran may be open to another round of ceasefire negotiations.
Analysts, however, cautioned that markets were getting ahead of themselves.
Iran conflict lacks genuine resolution
Trading firm QCP Capital flagged that the broader bond market wasn’t backing up the equity rally, writing in its latest Market Color update:
“Long-end yields barely budged, gold held its levels, and the bond market, which should be front-running an inflation relief trade more aggressively, did not follow through. When oil drops and the 10-year barely twitches, rates are telling you this is a reduction in headline risk, not a genuine resolution.”
WTI crude dropped below $90 to a new April low on the day, while the S&P 500 hit local highs of 6,988 — coming within just 15 points of a new all-time high.
QCP pointed to Iran’s uranium enrichment as the core sticking point, noting that Iran sits at 60% enriched uranium while the US demands levels below 20%.
QCP stated:
“Previous ceasefires have lasted weeks, while the enrichment issue has remained unresolved since 2015. Markets are trading the former, but the latter still sits at the core of the risk.”
BTC traders see ‘decision time’ ahead
On the bitcoin side, trader Jelle described the recent trip to $76,000 as an “equal high” rather than a meaningful breakout, writing:
“$BTC technically tagged those previous highs — but I’m viewing this as an equal high rather than a sweep, barely went above it. Keep an eye out for a real sweep above there; that’ll likely catch a lot of traders off guard.”
Trader Daan Crypto Trades echoed the cautious tone, noting that bitcoin had been grinding marginally higher since early April but that “decision time” was approaching as price consolidated near the $76K level.
QCP also observed the bitcoin price “grinding higher” but warned that options markets were “not confirming a clean breakout,” adding:
“This is a geopolitical relief rally, not a macro regime shift. Last week’s trade was to fade the blockade. This week’s question is whether investors should fade the relief.”
Macro backdrop still tight
President Trump posted on Truth Social that China had agreed not to send weapons to Iran and that he was “permanently opening the Strait of Hormuz,” which helped lift sentiment across risk assets.
Despite the positive headlines, QCP noted the Fed remains “boxed in, sitting near zero net cuts for the year after the oil shock repriced the easing path,” with liquidity conditions still tight.
