Bitcoin’s recent price surge may be setting the stage for increased profit-taking, according to onchain analytics firm CryptoQuant, which still classifies the move as a “bear market rally.”
Bitcoin has risen over 20% since the start of April to a three-month high, driven by earlier undervaluation, easing macroeconomic pressure, and a sharp increase in perpetual futures demand, according to CryptoQuant head of research Julio Moreno.
Profit-taking hits multi-month high
Holders realized 14,600 BTC in daily profits on May 4 — the highest level since December 10, 2025.
The Short-Term Holder Spent Output Profit Ratio (STH-SOPR) rose to 1.016 and has stayed above 1.00 since mid-April, signaling that bitcoin has been in:
clear profit-taking territory continuously since mid-April.
On a 30-day rolling basis, holders are now realizing +20,000 BTC in net profits — the first positive reading since December 22, 2025, following a brutal stretch in February and March when net losses reached as deep as -398,000 BTC.
Moreno stated:
“The shift from net loss realization to net profit realization is a structural inflection point in bear market dynamics. The crossing back into positive net territory reflects the degree to which the April–May price rally has restored profitability across the holder base.”
Still far from bull market territory
Despite the recovery, the current +20,000 BTC net profit level remains well below the 130,000 to 200,000 BTC range historically associated with confirmed bull market transitions.
Unrealized profit margins are now around 18%, a sharp reversal from the -29% unrealized losses seen in February and March.
Historically, rising unrealized profits increase the likelihood that holders will sell to lock in gains — a dynamic that raises correction risk.
Moreno noted:
“This distinction reinforces the bear market rally classification rather than a structural regime change.”
Correction risk real but not imminent
Despite the warning signs, Moreno said a correction may take time to materialize.
Perpetual futures demand continues to grow strongly, spot demand contraction remains mild, and exchange inflows remain muted.
Moreno described the current setup as:
“Consistent with a rally that carries meaningful correction risk but has not yet reached a confirmed distributional peak.”
