CryptoQuant is warning that bitcoin’s recent price gains are a “speculative rally” rather than fundamental buying support, raising the risk of a correction.
Bitcoin climbed roughly 20% in April, rising from around $66,000 to as high as $79,000. But according to CryptoQuant, perpetual futures demand was the sole engine behind that move, while spot demand stayed negative throughout the entire period.
Futures driving the rally, not spot buyers
CryptoQuant’s head of research, Julio Moreno, wrote in a report:
“Perpetual futures demand was the sole driver of bitcoin’s April price rally, while spot apparent demand contracted throughout, a configuration historically associated with unsustained price gains during bear markets.”
Moreno described this divergence — rising futures demand alongside contracting spot demand — as one of the clearest onchain signals that the rally is speculative rather than structural, suggesting the price rise is being fueled by leverage rather than fresh bitcoin accumulation:
“Historically, such configurations lack the structural foundation required to sustain price gains and typically resolve via correction once futures positioning unwinds.”
Mirroring the 2022 bear market pattern
CryptoQuant noted the current demand pattern closely resembles what was seen at the start of the 2022 bear market.
While the firm stopped short of predicting the same outcome, it said the current structure carries “meaningful downside risk.”
The firm added:
“Without a reversal in apparent demand from negative to positive, rallies back toward the $79,000 local peak will lack the onchain support needed for a sustained breakout.”
Bull score drops back into bearish territory
The CryptoQuant Bull Score Index declined from 50 to 40 in April, slipping back below the neutral threshold into bearish territory.
The index aggregates multiple onchain and market indicators into a 0–100 scale, with readings above 50 indicating bullish conditions.
The firm said this confirms that onchain fundamentals deteriorated following the speculative futures-driven rally, and that a score of 40 “places the market in the same range that historically preceded continued price weakness.”
Bitcoin was trading near $78,500 at the time of writing, roughly flat over the prior 24 hours.
