Coinbase has published its Q2 2026 “Charting Crypto” report, surveying 91 global investors on crypto market trends, sector positioning, and risk management.
The firm’s overall outlook on crypto markets is neutral for the quarter, with persistent geopolitical uncertainty — particularly the ongoing Middle East conflict — making short-term positioning difficult.
Bitcoin seen as undervalued
Despite the cautious macro backdrop, investor sentiment toward bitcoin remains broadly positive in the Coinbase survey.
Three-quarters of institutions (75%) and around three-fifths of non-institutions (61%) view BTC as undervalued, little changed from December 2025.
Only 7% of institutions and 11% of non-institutions see bitcoin as overvalued.
Macro headwinds dominate
Coinbase’s report notes that financial markets are primarily being driven by macro events rather than crypto-specific developments.
The IMF revised its global GDP growth forecast from 3.4% to 3.1% for 2026, assuming the Middle East conflict “remains limited in duration and scope.”
Oxford Economics went further, estimating that severe oil disruption could slow global GDP growth to just 1.4% in 2026, with the “US and most major advanced economies sliding into recession.”
Onchain signals turn positive
Despite the macro uncertainty, several onchain metrics tracked in the report point to accumulation rather than distribution.
The Puell Multiple fell to 0.7 in Q1 2026, suggesting miner revenue was running around 30% below its annual average — a level historically associated with oversold conditions.
Bitcoin supply moved within the last three months fell 37% in Q1 2026, while the share of supply unmoved for more than a year rose by 1%, consistent with patterns seen on the HODL waves chart during accumulation phases.
The MVRV Z-Score and supply profitability metrics both suggest bitcoin is currently in an accumulation zone, which Coinbase says “affirms the positive technical setup going into Q2 2026.”
Key factors
Coinbase also flagged two key crypto-specific factors to watch:
Progress on the CLARITY Act and developments in post-quantum cryptography.
