Citi cut its price target on Strategy Inc. to $136 from $260 in a note Wednesday, while keeping its Buy rating and High Risk designation.
The move followed a 27% reduction in the firm’s 12-month bitcoin forecast, now sitting near $81,800.
Where the new target comes from
Analyst Peter Christiansen said the revised target assumes roughly 40% upside from a higher bitcoin price over the next year, along with a 16% contribution from mNAV expansion at current levels.
Citi also cut its adjusted Bitcoin Yield estimates sharply.
The fiscal 2026 figure dropped from 10.4% to 2.6%, while fiscal 2027 fell from 10.5% to 3.9%.
Capital plan buys time
On Strategy’s updated capital plan, Christiansen said the changes buy the company “more time for stabilization.”
Last week, Strategy issued $1.15 billion worth of shares, lifting its USD Reserve from $1.4 billion to $2.55 billion.
That is enough to cover 17.4 months of preferred dividends.
The plan also authorizes a further $1.25 billion increase to the reserve and up to $1 billion in repurchases each of MSTR equity and preferred shares.
Citi noted that STRK and STRD preferred shares are trading at roughly 45% discounts to par, though it expects the company to focus more on STRC, currently at a 15% discount given its $10.5 billion size.
Not the bitcoin narrative
On broader bitcoin pressure, Christiansen argued Strategy:
“Shouldn’t be the BTC narrative.”
He estimated its trading activity has amounted to just 0.79% of trusted spot volume over the past 12 months.
Citi expects Strategy’s holdings to decline only modestly, from 4.0% to 3.8% of the 21 million token supply by year-end.
