Wall Street bank Cantor Fitzgerald said crypto markets are entering the final stage of the current bear cycle, with bitcoin’s historical trading patterns pointing to a potential bottom in the coming months.
A cycle nearing its low
Analysts led by Gareth Gacetta wrote in the Tuesday report:
“Ultimately, our belief is that we are only a few months away from the bottom of this pullback.”
As of June 10, bitcoin was 252 days past its 2025 peak and down about 51%.
Across the previous three market cycles, BTC bottomed an average of 384 days after peaking, implying the current downturn could reach a low around late October if history repeats.
The analysts cautioned that the model is not a precise timing tool given macroeconomic, regulatory and geopolitical risks, but noted crypto’s reflexive nature means historical cycles can become self-reinforcing.
Bitcoin was trading around $59,500 at publication time.
Focus on durable value
With the market nearing a potential turning point, the report urged investors to shift focus from speculative activity toward networks with durable value accrual.
Bitcoin fell more than 50% from its late-2025 peak after a sharp June selloff driven by persistent ETF outflows, elevated interest rates and weaker risk appetite.
Cantor argued that usage alone does not drive token value, and long-term winners will convert activity into sustainable cash flow or lasting monetary demand.
The bank pointed to bitcoin as the benchmark monetary asset.
Treasury companies as a theme
Cantor also highlighted digital asset treasury companies, arguing the strongest firms are evolving beyond passive holders into active operators.
