Key Takeaways
- Standard Chartered forecasts bitcoin will reach $135,000 by Q3 2025.
- Strong ETF inflows and corporate treasury buying are seen as new market drivers.
- The traditional post-halving correction cycle may be disrupted by increased institutional demand.
Global bank Standard Chartered has issued a bullish outlook for bitcoin, projecting a new all-time high of $135,000 by the end of the third quarter of 2025.
In a report released Wednesday, Geoff Kendrick, the bank’s head of digital asset research, attributed the optimism to robust inflows into spot bitcoin ETFs and increasing corporate treasury allocations.
Kendrick stated:
“Thanks to increased investor flows, we believe BTC has moved beyond the previous dynamic whereby prices fell 18 months after a ‘halving’ cycle.”
Historically, bitcoin’s halving events have led to price surges followed by corrections about 18 months later.
However, Kendrick argued that this cycle may be “dead” due to new demand from ETFs and corporate buyers, both of which were largely absent in previous cycles.
The report also reiterated Standard Chartered’s long-term target of $500,000 per bitcoin by 2028.
ETF inflows and corporate demand reshape market
Kendrick’s analysis highlighted that ETF and corporate buying totaled 245,000 BTC in Q2 2025, with expectations for even greater accumulation in the second half of the year.
Despite this, spot bitcoin ETFs in the US recently saw $342.3 million in outflows after a 15-day streak of inflows, amounting to 7% of the $4.8 billion accumulated during that period.
ETF inflow and outflow data are now seen as primary market drivers.
The report emphasized that, while some price volatility may occur in late Q3 and early Q4, strong ETF and corporate demand should support an overall uptrend.
