Research and brokerage firm K33 says the odds of a bitcoin short squeeze are rising, as an unusually long stretch of negative funding rates begins to mirror conditions seen at previous market bottoms.
Negative funding streak hits 46 days
The 30-day average bitcoin derivatives funding rate has now been negative for 46 consecutive days, according to K33 Head of Research Vetle Lunde.
That matches the duration of the negative funding regime seen around the late 2022 bear market bottom — a period that preceded a significant price recovery.
Lunde noted in a new report that periods where notional open interest trends higher, bitcoin prices rise, and daily, seven-day, and 30-day average funding rates remain negative have persistently appeared near consolidation bottoms.
He stated:
“With recent funding rate compression and the unusually persistent negative regime, we see increasing odds of higher highs and a breakout from BTC’s 68-day consolidation.”
Historical comparisons
Only two prior periods have seen longer continuous stretches of negative 30-day funding rates: March to May 2020, which lasted 63 days, and June to August 2021, which ran for 49 days.
Both of those episodes were followed by notable price advances, lending weight to K33’s current bullish read.
Lunde added:
“Current crypto-native positioning aligns with such conditions, which is why we have emphasized funding rate regimes in our reports over the past month and why we maintain our bullish BTC outlook.”
Where bitcoin stands now
Bitcoin is up roughly 3% over the past week and has climbed 23% since hitting a low of around $60,000 on Feb. 6.
However, it remains down around 41% from its all-time high of approximately $126,000, set on Oct. 6, 2025.
