K33 Research has released a new report claiming that bitcoin’s long-standing four-year halving cycle is now obsolete, replaced by a market driven by institutional adoption, sovereign participation, and macroeconomic policy changes.
Shift in market dynamics
In its October 2025 outlook, K33 argued that the classic cycle—once a reliable market clock—no longer dictates bitcoin’s trajectory.
Instead, structural forces such as record ETF inflows, government policy, and growing institutional participation are taking center stage.
This shift was highlighted as bitcoin reached new all-time highs in both U.S. dollars and euros.
K33’s Head of Research, Vetle Lunde, wrote in the report:
“The 4-year cycle is dead, long live the king. This time is indeed different and bitcoin has entered a fundamentally new regime where structural forces, not retail mania, dictate its trajectory.”
Overheated, but not unstable
While K33 acknowledged a surge in bitcoin ETF and derivatives exposure—more than 63,000 BTC ($7.75 billion) in a single week, the largest 2025 accumulation so far—the firm does not view this as a sign of an imminent crash.
Open interest on CME futures increased by nearly 15,000 BTC, and U.S. ETFs absorbed over 31,600 BTC in just seven days.
Despite these signs of market exuberance, K33 expects only short-term consolidation rather than a major reversal.
The report contrasts the current rally with past peaks, emphasizing the difference between today’s institutional reality and the retail-driven euphoria of 2017 and 2021.
No October cycle peak?
Lunde dismissed the idea that bitcoin is set for a cyclical peak in October, despite historical fractal analysis pointing to a similar timeline as previous bull runs.
K33 uses a six-part risk framework—including RSI, funding rates, and bitcoin dominance—and finds only a couple of red flags at present, keeping the market outside of historical “danger zones.”
Lunde concluded that nothing indicates a repeat of the traditional four-year cycle and that bitcoin’s current price action remains healthy.
