JPMorgan analysts have raised their year-end bitcoin price target to $165,000, pointing to the cryptocurrency’s current undervaluation relative to gold and strong inflows from retail investors.
Bitcoin’s valuation versus gold
According to a recent report led by JPMorgan managing director Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou, bitcoin’s volatility-adjusted value has shifted dramatically.
At the end of 2024, bitcoin was considered $36,000 overvalued compared to gold; now, it is about $46,000 undervalued.
With the bitcoin-to-gold volatility ratio falling below 2.0, bitcoin now consumes only about 1.85 times more risk capital than gold.
Based on these metrics, JPMorgan estimates bitcoin’s market cap would need to increase by 42% to align with the value of the private gold investment market, implying a theoretical price of $165,000.
The report stated:
“This mechanical exercise thus could imply significant upside for bitcoin.”
Retail investors drive the ‘debasement trade’
JPMorgan attributes much of bitcoin’s recent momentum to the so-called “debasement trade”—a surge in demand for alternative stores of value amid concerns about government deficits, inflation, and weakening fiat currencies.
Retail investors have led the charge, with heavy flows into bitcoin and gold ETFs since late 2024.
Bitcoin ETF inflows surged in early 2025 before cooling in August, while gold ETF flows have recently narrowed the gap between the two assets.
Institutional vs retail dynamics
While institutional activity has increased via CME futures, JPMorgan notes these positions lag ETF flows, suggesting retail participation is driving the trend.
The analysts also highlighted that as gold prices have surged, bitcoin has become more attractive on a relative basis.
Bullish forecasts widen
JPMorgan’s outlook aligns with a broader wave of bullish forecasts for bitcoin, with some analysts predicting prices as high as $200,000 by year-end.
As of now, bitcoin trades around $119,000, according to market data.
