Global macro analyst Luke Gromen, known for his long-standing bullish stance on Bitcoin as a hedge against fiat debasement, has shifted to a bearish outlook for the near term.
Gromen cites macro and technical concerns
In a recent podcast appearance, Gromen warned that Bitcoin could fall to the $40,000 range by 2026.
While he continues to support the core debasement trade—where investors move out of fiat and into scarce assets like gold and Bitcoin—he now sees gold and certain equities outperforming Bitcoin in expressing that thesis. Gromen explained:
“Basically everything but gold and the dollar are likely to get waylaid.”
He pointed to Bitcoin’s failure to reach new highs against gold, a break below key moving averages, and increased discussion of quantum computing risks as signs that the asset’s risk-reward profile has worsened in the short term.
Quantum risk and macro jitters weigh on sentiment
Gromen’s change in tone arrives as macroeconomic uncertainty and narratives about quantum computing threats are growing.
Analysts are questioning whether Bitcoin can hold onto its ETF-driven gains, while concerns about the AI sector and weak U.S. economic data also pressure sentiment.
The perceived threat from quantum computing, though still considered distant by most cryptographers, is becoming a more frequent topic.
Bitcoin analysts push back on bear case
Bitcoin-focused analysts are skeptical of Gromen’s reasoning, arguing that technical breakdowns and lagging performance compared to gold do not necessarily signal a top.
Onchain analyst Checkmate noted that much of Gromen’s evidence comes from social media narratives rather than on-chain data.
Troy Cross of the Bitcoin Policy Institute described the call as a trade on quantum risk perception instead of real cryptographic vulnerability.
