Since its inception, Bitcoin has moved in what many call the four-year cycle: a halving event cuts new supply, driving scarcity and often spurring price surges and corrections.
Historically, these cycles defined market expectations, with peaks in 2013, 2017, and 2021 following halving years.
The four-year cycle fades
However, Grayscale’s recent analysis, supported by Glassnode and Coinbase Institutional data, suggests Bitcoin’s traditional halving-driven pattern is losing influence.
With most of the fixed 21 million BTC supply already in circulation, each halving now has a smaller relative impact on new issuance.
This diminishing effect raises doubts about the cycle’s future dominance, according to Grayscale.
Institutional flows and changing demand
Grayscale highlights a key market transformation: institutional capital has largely supplanted the retail-driven mania of previous cycles.
Today, demand is shaped by exchange-traded funds, corporate treasury allocations, and professional investment funds.
These vehicles bring patient, long-term capital, unlike the emotion-fueled retail rallies of 2013 and 2017.
Additionally, recent price action has been more measured. Grayscale notes that the 30% drop in 2025 resembles a typical bull-market correction, not the beginning of a prolonged bear market.
Macro factors now in control
Unlike earlier periods, Bitcoin’s price is now sensitive to macroeconomic trends—such as interest rate expectations, fiscal policy, and global liquidity, according to the firm.
Grayscale points to bipartisan US regulatory initiatives and Bitcoin’s growing integration into institutional portfolios as further factors decoupling price action from halving events.
Glassnode data supports the shift
Onchain research from Glassnode shows long-term holders now control a record share of supply, reducing available liquidity and lessening the supply shock from halvings.
Volatility remains lower than at previous cycle turning points, reflecting the stabilizing effect of institutional participation.
Increasing ETF and custodial demand means more coins are held in dormant wallets, further limiting market supply.
Some analysts still argue that halvings remain pivotal, pointing to the fact that each event irreversibly cuts supply, and that long-term holder activity still clusters around these periods.
However, Grayscale contends that Bitcoin is entering a new era where institutional flows and macro conditions outweigh the old four-year script.
