After making a new all-time high above $126,200 in October 2025, bitcoin descended into a bear market.
Despite a short-lived rally from March to May earlier this year, bitcoin is currently trading back below $69,000, the high it made during its 2019 to 2021 bull market.
What counts as a crypto winter
A crypto winter is simply another term for a bear market, though Fidelity notes the current drop doesn’t quite fit the technical mold.
In each of bitcoin’s previous bear markets, its price dropped by at least 77% from the prior all-time high.
By contrast, the June 2026 low sits roughly 53% below the last peak.
“However, what’s clear is that we’re far from being in a bull market. And the enthusiastic market sentiment that was present during the bull run has been completely absent in 2026.”
Since 2011, bitcoin has emerged from four bear markets. Fidelity highlighted five factors that have helped revive past markets.
The four-year cycle
The first is bitcoin’s historical 4-year cycle, driven by the halving mechanism that cuts mining rewards roughly every four years:
“If this pattern were to continue (note there is no guarantee it will), it could mean the current bear market will bottom some time around November 2026.”
Regulation
The second factor is regulation.
The SEC’s approval of spot bitcoin ETPs in January 2024 helped push prices to new highs, and the industry is now watching the CLARITY Act, still being debated as of June 2026.
Monetary policy, use cases, and institutions
Third, crypto prices have historically risen when the Federal Reserve cuts interest rates, though Fidelity stresses the relationship is correlational, not causal.
Fourth, a breakout use case could spark fresh demand. Current trends include real-world asset tokenization, stablecoins boosted by 2025’s GENIUS Act, and AI-related applications.
Fifth is growing institutional adoption, though Fidelity warns it’s no longer a fresh narrative.
