Bitcoin has entered the final quarter of 2025 with momentum suggesting a major price rally may be underway, according to onchain analytics firm CryptoQuant.
Demand growth signals potential rally
Spot demand for bitcoin has been rising steadily since July, with monthly demand increasing by over 62,000 BTC.
CryptoQuant noted that similar demand surges preceded significant Q4 rallies in previous years, including 2020, 2021, and 2024.
Whale holdings have also expanded, growing at an annual rate of 331,000 BTC—higher than in comparable periods of earlier cycles.
ETF inflows and realized price
U.S.-listed spot bitcoin ETFs purchased 213,000 BTC in Q4 2024, marking a 71% increase from the prior quarter.
CryptoQuant’s head of research, Julio Moreno, suggested that similar growth could continue this quarter.
The firm observed that bitcoin recently surpassed the “trader’s on-chain realized price” of $116,000, with bitcoin trading around $117,300.
This threshold is considered a key indicator for shifting back into a bull market phase.
Bull score index and selling pressure
CryptoQuant’s “bitcoin bull score index” stood at 40–50 at the end of Q3, matching the levels seen before previous rallies. The firm stated:
“These levels represent the threshold before conditions turn to bullish according to the index.”
The index is currently supported by expanding spot demand, increasing ETF inflows, growing stablecoin liquidity, and lower unrealized trader gains, which indicate decreased selling pressure.
Competing forecasts for year-end price
Other firms such as Standard Chartered, Bitwise, and Fundstrat’s Tom Lee also forecast a possible bitcoin price of $200,000 by year-end.
Standard Chartered projects bitcoin could reach $500,000 by 2028 as investor access broadens and volatility declines.
