Crypto asset manager Bitwise forecasts that U.S. spot bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) will attract record-breaking inflows in the fourth quarter of 2025, potentially surpassing the $36 billion total amassed in 2024.
Wealth manager adoption accelerates
Bitwise Chief Investment Officer Matt Hougan highlighted a trend of increased institutional approval, with firms like Morgan Stanley and Wells Fargo now permitting advisors to allocate client funds to bitcoin ETFs.
Other major firms, such as UBS and Merrill Lynch, are expected to follow suit. Hougan noted that discussions with advisors reveal strong latent demand, though widespread adoption will take time.
‘Debasement trade’ narrative drives demand
Both gold and bitcoin have become top-performing assets this year, driven by concerns over currency devaluation.
The so-called ‘debasement trade’—investing in assets that hedge against government-induced currency erosion—has gained traction as the U.S. money supply has risen 44% since 2020.
This trend has been reinforced by recent reports from JPMorgan and is increasingly influencing portfolio decisions at year-end.
For those monitoring the macro trends, the chart showing the devaluation of the US dollar since 1913 offers historical context for the ‘debasement trade.’
Price surge fuels ETF inflows
Bitcoin’s recent rally to new all-time highs—surpassing $125,000 before settling around $122,744—has historically coincided with increased ETF demand.
Every quarter featuring double-digit bitcoin returns has seen ETFs receive billions in inflows.
In the first four days of Q4 alone, $3.5 billion in net flows were recorded, with total year-to-date flows reaching $25.9 billion.
Hougan stated in his latest memo:
“We have 64 more days to get another $10 billion. I think we’ll do that and then some.”
BlackRock leads recent ETF surge
On Tuesday, spot bitcoin ETFs added another $875.6 million in inflows, led by BlackRock’s IBIT, which attracted $899.4 million. The previous day saw over $1.2 billion in inflows, marking the largest daily total since Donald Trump’s election victory in November 2024.
For ongoing ETF flow data, see the US Bitcoin ETF current and historical holdings and ETF inflows and outflows charts.
