Bitwise chief investment officer Matt Hougan says he is increasingly confident that bitcoin and the broader digital asset market will experience a major bull run in 2026, as the absence of a strong rally in late 2025 sets the stage for further upside.
Four-year cycle expectations
Speaking at The Bridge conference in New York City, Hougan noted that a traditional end-of-2025 rally would have aligned with the well-known four-year cycle, likely leading to a bear market in 2026.
Instead, he now sees 2026 as a year of growth. Hougan stated:
“I’m actually more confident in that quote. The biggest risk was [if] we ripped into the end of 2025 and then we got a pullback.”
He pointed to growing institutional investment, regulatory progress, and the rise of stablecoins and tokenization as factors supporting long-term momentum in the space.
Bitcoin may still reach new highs
While some, such as Arthur Hayes and Tom Lee, have predicted that bitcoin could hit $250,000 by year-end, Hougan is more conservative but maintains optimism for new highs in 2026.
With bitcoin currently trading near $101,000, reaching such lofty targets would require a substantial rally.
Retail sentiment remains subdued
Hougan attributed the current market pullback to “crypto-native retail” investors, who he said have been discouraged by events like the FTX collapse and disappointing altcoin performance. He explained:
“Crypto native retail is depressed, they were beaten down by FTX, they were beaten down by the memecoin debacle. They were beaten down by the altcoin season not arriving. They got hurt on the 10/10 liquidation, and I think they’re just sitting this one out.”
However, Hougan noted that traditional retail interest is still strong—especially given the ongoing inflows into U.S. spot bitcoin exchange-traded funds, as shown in the ETF inflows chart.
Fundamentals remain strong
Despite current challenges, Hougan emphasized the sound fundamentals underpinning bitcoin’s outlook, citing factors such as institutional adoption and regulatory clarity.
As 2026 approaches, many in the industry will be watching to see if these drivers translate into the next major bull run.
