Bitwise Chief Investment Officer Matt Hougan says Bitcoin’s total addressable market could surpass the $34 trillion gold market, pointing to Iran’s proposal to accept crypto as payment for ships navigating the Strait of Hormuz as evidence that Bitcoin is emerging as a genuine currency alternative.
Bitcoin beyond gold
Hougan made the case on Tuesday, arguing that while Bitcoin has long been compared to gold as a store of value, the Iran situation reveals a broader use case.
He wrote:
“In a world where countries have weaponized their financial rails, Bitcoin is emerging as an apolitical alternative.”
He added:
“It tells you that Bitcoin’s total addressable market is probably a lot bigger than the $38 trillion gold market alone.”
Gold is currently trading at $4,854 per ounce with a market cap estimated above $33.7 trillion, while Bitcoin trades around $74,500 with a market cap of roughly $1.4 trillion.
A revised price target
Hougan had previously estimated that if Bitcoin captures just 17% of the store-of-value market over the next decade, it could reach $1 million per coin.
With a potential dual role as both a store of value and a transactional currency, he suggested that target may need to go higher.
He stated:
“If Bitcoin starts to take on a dual role as both a store of value, like gold, and an actual currency, like the dollar, we may need to revise our targets higher.”
For context on where bitcoin currently sits relative to its long-term price trajectory, the asset remains well below prior cycle peaks on a inflation-adjusted basis.
Real-world adoption driving the thesis
The argument isn’t purely theoretical.
Citizens in high-inflation economies like Argentina, Turkey, and Venezuela have already turned to Bitcoin to protect their savings, with an 87% majority of Argentinians in a January Coinbase survey flagging crypto as a tool for financial independence.
Corporate adoption has also accelerated, with private and public companies tracked in the bitcoin treasury database collectively holding more than 1.5 million BTC valued above $116 billion.
On the payments side, academic publisher Springer Nature identified roughly 11,000 merchants globally that currently accept Bitcoin as payment, suggesting the currency use case is already taking root well beyond geopolitical proposals.
