Bitcoin is currently priced at a significant discount relative to its long-term correlation with the Nasdaq 100 index, with data from Ecoinometrics suggesting its fair value should be near $156,000—about 30% higher than the current spot price.
This gap is historically wide, last seen in 2023 before a major rally.
Market discount and correlation trends
Despite recent underperformance against tech stocks, Bitcoin’s correlation with major U.S. equity indexes remains strong.
Bloomberg data indicates the market is recalibrating rather than collapsing, and the current valuation gap is among the largest in recent memory.
Ecoinometrics commented:
“Unless you believe the bull market is already over, this gap is likely to narrow as Bitcoin catches up.”
Open interest and derivatives landscape
The October flash crash triggered a $12 billion wipeout in open interest, with futures falling from $47 billion to $35 billion.
Many view this as a healthy reset, flushing leverage and paving the way for organic spot demand and renewed ETF inflows.
Glassnode highlighted a shift in market structure:
“Bitcoin’s derivatives landscape is changing as Options OI begins to rival Futures. Markets are shifting toward defined-risk and volatility strategies, meaning options flows, rather than futures liquidations, are becoming a more influential force in shaping price action.”
Rotation from gold to bitcoin
Gold’s recent rally has started to lose momentum, prompting some investors to rotate into Bitcoin.
Anthony Pompliano noted that Bitcoin often lags gold by about 100 days in performance cycles, and with gold’s surge stalling, attention is shifting back to digital assets.
Younger investors’ preference for digital-native assets and Bitcoin’s finite supply are reinforcing this trend.
A rare setup for long-term holders
With Bitcoin lagging its Nasdaq-implied fair value by 30%, a level not seen in nearly two years, market conditions suggest an accumulation phase.
