Bitcoin slipped from near three-month highs on Thursday as traders turned their attention to the weekly candle close and a key technical level that has been absent for six months.
Data from TradingView showed BTC/USD dropping to $77,200 ahead of the Wall Street open, after hitting $79,500 the prior day — its highest level since the last day of January — with the $80,000 mark remaining just out of reach.
Bull market support band back in focus
The move brought Bitcoin’s bull market support band back into the spotlight for the first time since October 2025.
Formed by the 21-week exponential moving average (EMA) and the 20-week simple moving average (SMA), the band was lost as support shortly after Bitcoin’s latest all-time highs.
Trader Daan Crypto Trades noted the significance of the upcoming close:
“Eyes on the weekly close this weekend, as it will be an important one. Bitcoin has not traded above its bull market support band since October 2025.”
Trader Jelle also flagged the choppy price action, observing that BTC kept taking out highs without following through.
Jelle wrote:
“Been a while since we saw PA like that; usually means liquidity is being generated for a larger position. The question is, when will they step on the gas?”
Macro catalysts on the horizon
Macro markets were relatively quiet on the day, though the coming week was set to bring key US economic data prints alongside the latest Federal Reserve interest-rate decision.
Markets currently see virtually no chance of the Fed changing rates at next week’s meeting, according to CME Group’s FedWatch Tool.
Trading firm QCP Capital pointed to oil prices and Fed policy as the clearest near-term signals for crypto markets.
QCP Capital wrote in its latest Market Color analysis:
“Until then, the broader message remains the same: risk has stepped back from the brink, but the underlying macro and geopolitical overhang has not been cleared.”
What traders are watching
The firm added that oil staying below $100 would support the relief case, while clearer Fed signalling would help compress the policy premium.
Multiple resistance levels remain in play in the current price zone, with the 21-week EMA proving difficult to flip into support — a level Bitcoin last held in October 2025.
The bitcoin price remains roughly 38% below its all-time high, and the weekly close will be closely watched as a potential signal.
