Bitcoin may already be about two months into a bear market, according to CryptoQuant head of research Julio Moreno.
Moreno said on the Milk Road show that most inputs in his “bull score index” flipped bearish in early November and “have yet to recover.”
One-year moving average as the trigger
Moreno pointed to a key technical level as his confirmation.
He said:
“For me the last confirmation, it’s a technical indicator, which is the price going below its one-year moving average, that’s the technical indicator that I would say confirms this.”
Bitcoin began 2025 around $93,000 and peaked at $126,080 in October before ending the year below where it started, according to CoinGecko.
Realized price points to a potential bottom
With bitcoin trading around $88,543 as of Friday, Moreno said the next year could bring a bear-market low in the $56,000 to $60,000 range.
He tied that estimate to bitcoin’s realized price, which reflects the average purchase price of coins held on-chain.
Moreno said prior bear markets often saw price fall toward realized price after extended upside deviations during bull phases.
Drawdown could be smaller than prior cycles
A move from the $126,080 high to $56,000 would be roughly a 55% drawdown.
Moreno said that would be less severe than prior bear markets that saw 70% to 80% declines, and argued the current downturn has not been driven by major industry failures.
He also said demand has become more periodic, citing “institutional or ETFs that don’t sell,” as reflected in U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF flows.
