Onchain analyst Willy Woo said growing attention to quantum computing is starting to weigh on bitcoin’s long-term valuation case versus gold.
Woo argued that markets are beginning to price in the risk of a future “Q-Day,” when a sufficiently powerful quantum computer could break today’s public key cryptography.
Why “lost” bitcoin matters
Woo said roughly 4 million BTC that are presumed lost could be pulled back into circulation if private keys could be derived from exposed public keys.
He estimated there is about a 25% chance the network would agree to freeze those coins via a hard fork, calling it a contentious governance question.
Researchers have put the at-risk pool at roughly 25% to 30% of supply in addresses where public keys are already visible onchain.
Woo said the possibility of those coins becoming spendable again is being reflected as a structural discount on bitcoin’s valuation versus gold over the next five to 15 years.
Developers: quantum is not imminent
Despite the macro chatter, several long-time bitcoin developers and cryptographers have pushed back on near-term “doomsday” framing.
Blockstream co-founder Adam Back said cryptographically relevant quantum systems are likely “not for 20-40 years, if then,” and pointed to NIST’s 2024 standardization of SLH-DSA as an example of quantum-secure signatures bitcoin could adopt over time.
Migration, not emergency forks
Developers have described a post-quantum path as a phased migration toward new address formats and key management practices, rather than a single emergency hard fork.
Woo’s comments come as bitcoin trades near $68,985 and as institutions increasingly discuss quantum risk alongside other macro considerations.
