Recent bitcoin whale selling activity has sparked debate among analysts, but research from Glassnode suggests that these moves are part of normal late-stage cycle dynamics, not a sign of panic or mass exit.
Whale sales reflect late-cycle rotation
On Thursday, a wallet identified as belonging to trader Owen Gunden transferred 2,400 bitcoin, worth $237 million, to the exchange Kraken.
This transaction adds to a series of large transfers from so-called whales in recent weeks.
However, Glassnode analysts emphasized that the data does not indicate an abrupt sell-off, but rather a steady, structured distribution commonly seen in bull markets. As they explained:
“This steady rise reflects increasing distribution pressure from older investor cohorts — a pattern typical of late-cycle profit-taking, not a sudden exodus of whales.”
Monthly average spending by long-term holders has grown from over 12,000 bitcoin per day in early July to around 26,000 as of Thursday, illustrating a consistent and measured distribution pattern.
Glassnode noted that long-term holders have taken profits throughout each cycle in a similar fashion.
No sign of panic as buyers still present
Vincent Liu, chief investment officer at Kronos Research, told Cointelegraph that the current sales are part of a regular cycle flow. He stated:
“Late cycle doesn’t mean the market is capped, it means momentum has cooled while macro and liquidity steer the ship. Fading rate-cut bets and short-term softness have slowed upside, not sunk it.”
Liu also highlighted on-chain indicators like the net unrealized profit ratio, which he believes could signal short-term market lows, though he cautioned that several data points are needed to confirm any bottom.
You can view the net unrealized profit and loss (NUPL) chart for bitcoin here.
Four-year cycle patterns under scrutiny
Charlie Sherry, head of finance at BTC Markets, noted that while whale selling in isolation is not out of the ordinary, the current cycle is witnessing less buying support.
He mentioned that market tops have historically occurred around every four years — for example, in December 2017 and November 2021, both about 1,050 days after previous bottoms.
However, he cautioned that the four-year cycle is not a certainty, especially with new participants like ETFs and corporate treasuries now holding significant bitcoin positions.
“Only time will tell whether we have just seen a cycle top. There are fundamental reasons why Bitcoin may no longer follow a four-year rhythm, but the strength of those fundamentals is being tested right now.”
