US tax filers could receive larger refunds in 2026, and one Wells Fargo strategist said the cash may reignite retail risk-taking in bitcoin and momentum stocks.
In a note cited by CNBC, Wells Fargo analyst Ohsung Kwon said as much as $150 billion could flow into equities and Bitcoin by the end of March, with the impact most visible among higher-income consumers.
Kwon wrote in the note:
“Speculation picks up with bigger savings…we expect YOLO to return.”
He added:
“Additional savings from tax returns, especially for the high-income consumer will flow back into equities, in our view.”
Kwon said some liquidity could move into bitcoin and retail-favored names such as Robinhood and Boeing.
Refund catalyst
The report linked the larger returns to President Donald Trump’s “One Big Beautiful Bill Act,” signed into law on July 4, 2025, which Trump said would cut as much as $1.6 trillion in federal spending.
Bitcoin demand and sentiment
Nansen research analyst Nicolai Sondergaard said flows into crypto would likely depend on whether retail sees improving momentum.
Sondergaard told Cointelegraph:
“If sentiment starts to come around and retail sees positive upwards momentum in crypto assets, I see that as increasing the likelihood of funds flowing in this direction.”
Smart money shorts, whales accumulate
Nansen data showed “smart money” traders were net short Bitcoin by a cumulative $107 million, alongside most major cryptocurrencies.
At the same time, the report said whales accumulated more than $41.9 million in spot Ether across 22 wallets over the past week, a 1.7x increase in purchases for that cohort.
Bitcoin was trading around $67,286 at the time of the report, according to Cointelegraph pricing.
