Bitcoin stabilized in mid-March after a 19% decline in its 30-day average price, with derivatives leverage easing and miner selling staying relatively contained, according to VanEck’s latest ChainCheck report by Matthew Sigel.
Price action
Sigel said realized volatility dropped from about 80 to just above 50 over the past month, while bitcoin futures funding rates fell from 4.1% to 2.7%.
He wrote:
“Bitcoin stabilized after a 19% drawdown as futures leverage cooled, options demand for downside protection hit cycle highs, and miner selling stayed contained.”
VanEck said the combination points to a post-stress reset in positioning rather than a renewed speculative surge.
Options turn defensive
Options data showed investors remained cautious even as spot prices steadied.
Total options open interest rose 3% month over month to $33.4 billion.
Sigel wrote:
“The put/call open interest ratio averaged 0.77, its highest since June 2021, sitting in the 91st percentile of observations since mid-2019.”
VanEck added that similar skew levels have historically aligned with stronger forward returns, though the report framed that as a historical pattern rather than a forecast.
Onchain activity cools
Onchain activity weakened across most major measures.
Transfer volume fell 31%, daily fees dropped 27%, daily active addresses slipped 5%, and mean transaction fees declined 40%.
As more activity shifts to offchain venues, traditional network indicators may reflect a smaller share of total market activity.
Miners and holders
Long-term holder distribution slowed, with transfer volume falling across every coin age band and active long-term supply dipping from 31% to 30%.
Miner economics also worsened, with total miner revenue down 11%.
Miner outflows to exchanges rose just 1% in BTC terms, while aggregate miner balances stood near 684,000 BTC.
Over the past year, miners effectively sold roughly all newly issued supply, about 164,000 BTC.
