VanEck says bitcoin is approaching a cyclical bottom, telling investors the post-halving bear phase that began around Q4 2024 is showing signs of exhaustion.
A predictable cycle
The view came in a webinar led by Pat Schramm, Managing Director and Head of National Accounts, who walked through how VanEck’s Q3 outlook translates into portfolio decisions.
According to the firm, bitcoin has fallen from a peak near $125,000 to the low $60,000s during the current downturn, a pattern it ties directly to the four-year halving cycle in which mining rewards are cut in half and supply issuance contracts.
VanEck framed the decline as normal behavior rather than a breakdown in the asset itself, writing:
“These cycles are features, not structural breaks.”
Reading the GEO signals
The firm’s GEO framework tracks global liquidity, ecosystem leverage, and on-chain activity.
Two of the three signals are currently neutral, while ecosystem leverage reads as constructive.
VanEck said the combination points to near-bottoming conditions that may warrant beginning to scale in, though it cautioned that historical market-cycle patterns may not repeat and should not be treated as a market-timing signal.
Gold and macro backdrop
Alongside bitcoin, VanEck highlighted gold’s recent consolidation as a pause within a structural bull market, pointing to central banks as net buyers, widening fiscal deficits, and inflation running persistently above target.
Incoming Federal Reserve leadership adds another layer of policy uncertainty, the firm noted.
For bitcoin exposure, VanEck pointed to its own spot bitcoin ETF, HODL, as well as NODE, an actively managed fund that incorporates bitcoin cycle indicators to adjust risk exposure.
The broader message from the outlook was that concentration has given way to dispersion, and that allocators should stay invested in structural themes while redeploying into areas of cyclical weakness.
