Key Takeaways
- Kalshi bettors see a 70% chance of a US Bitcoin reserve by 2026.
- Trump pledges to establish a strategic national Bitcoin reserve.
- Senator Lummis' BITCOIN Act proposes acquiring 1 million BTC over five years.
Betting platforms Kalshi and Polymarket report increasing odds that President-elect Donald Trump will establish a U.S. Bitcoin reserve during his administration.
On Kalshi, the probability for a 2026 reserve is near 70%, while Polymarket users place a 60% chance of action during 2025.
Trump’s Bitcoin vision
Odds on both platforms have surged by roughly 20% since early January, reflecting rising confidence in Trump’s pro-Bitcoin stance.
Trump has pledged to make the U.S. a global leader in Bitcoin, reiterating this at the Bitcoin 2024 conference in Nashville, where he promised to create a…
… strategic national Bitcoin reserve.
Legislative support
Trump’s campaign aligns with recent legislative proposals, including Senator Cynthia Lummis’ BITCOIN Act, which would require the Treasury Department to acquire 1 million BTC over five years.
Trump has also hinted at expanding a potential reserve to include other cryptocurrencies like USD Coin and Solana, raising expectations of broader support for the industry.
Market impact
According to CoinShares, implementing such a reserve would have a more significant long-term impact on Bitcoin adoption than the 2024 ETF launches, further solidifying Bitcoin’s role in U.S. financial strategy.
