David Bailey, entrepreneur and Bitcoin adviser to former President Donald Trump, has predicted that no Bitcoin bear market will occur for several years, citing unprecedented institutional adoption.
Institutional interest grows
Bailey stated in a recent X post that it is the “first time we’ve ever seen real institutional buy in,” emphasizing that major players such as sovereigns, banks, insurers, corporates, and pensions are entering the market.
He argued that previous institutional involvement was limited, but now, “the process has already begun in earnest.” Bailey added:
“Every Sovereign, Bank, Insurer, Corporate, Pension, and more will own Bitcoin. The process has already begun in earnest, yet we haven’t even captured 0.01% of the Total addressable market (TAM). We’re going so much higher. Dream big.”
Analysts point to four-year cycle risks
Despite Bailey’s optimism, analysts note that Bitcoin’s historical four-year cycle could still bring about another bear market.
CK Zheng of ZX Squared Capital said that Bitcoin remains closely tied to the broader stock market, meaning a downturn in equities could trigger a Bitcoin correction.
Zheng highlighted the significance of the Federal Reserve’s recent pivot towards lower interest rates, suggesting this could delay a bear market but not eliminate the risk entirely.
Pav Hundal, lead market analyst at Swyftx, warned that macroeconomic shocks could quickly change market direction. Hundal commented:
“The path of least resistance is higher for Bitcoin, but that doesn’t mean a bear market is years away. Macro shocks come when you least expect them.”
Possible end to traditional bear markets
Ryan McMillin of Merkle Tree Capital suggested that while a cyclical top may form around Q2 2026, a bear market could be milder if global liquidity reverses.
He noted that large pools of institutional demand may add volatility due to leverage and late entrants, but also raised the possibility of Bitcoin skipping deep bear markets—similar to gold after its ETF launch.
McMillin stated that ongoing periods of consolidation and leverage resets could mean “regular corrections” rather than prolonged downturns.
