Markus Thielen, head of research at 10x Research, says the popular call for $1 million bitcoin by 2030 does not survive basic arithmetic.
The math behind the call
Speaking to Cointelegraph on Trade Secrets, Thielen pointed to the roughly $1 trillion of inflows it took over 15 years to build bitcoin’s current market cap.
He said:
“It’s mathematically impossible. We have seen $1 trillion US dollars of inflow to bring the market cap really to $1 trillion. To $1 million [per] Bitcoin. It’s 15x, I think, from here.”
By his estimate, another $15 trillion would need to rotate into bitcoin over four years, roughly a quarter of the entire US stock market.
At the time of publication bitcoin traded near $63,868 with a market cap around $1.28 trillion, leaving it well below the $126,000 all-time high.
Retail psychology and unit bias
Thielen also argued that higher prices weaken retail appetite because buyers want a whole coin rather than a fraction.
He said:
“People don’t want to buy a tenth or a hundredth of a Bitcoin; they want to buy a whole Bitcoin. You don’t want to buy a fraction of a painting.”
He added that “satoshis doesn’t really sound as interesting as Bitcoin.”
Warning on headline price targets
The $1 million forecast has been floated by Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong, Jack Dorsey and ARK Invest’s Cathie Wood, which Thielen says generates easy press coverage.
He warned that such calls can mislead smaller buyers who assume even half the target guarantees profit.
Asked when $1 million might realistically arrive, Thielen would not rule it out entirely but said it would take extreme conditions:
“It would require, you know, a major credit event, implosion of everything.”
He added that a return to $100,000 next year would already be “a big, big achievement.”
