Strive strategist Joe Burnett says AI-driven “technological deflation” could help drive Bitcoin above $10 million within a decade by pressuring central banks to keep expanding the money supply.
Burnett, Strive’s vice president of Bitcoin strategy, wrote in a Monday report that his base case is Bitcoin reaching $11 million in the first quarter of 2036.
He wrote:
“My base case for Q1 2036 is $11 million per Bitcoin.”
Assumptions behind the $230 trillion market cap
Burnett’s model assumes Bitcoin rises to about 12% of global financial assets and that global wealth compounds at 7% annually through 2036.
With Bitcoin currently around 0.2% of all financial assets, the scenario implies an over 176-fold increase in market capitalization to roughly $230 trillion.
Coin Bureau co-founder and analyst Nic Puckrin told Cointelegraph:
“The forecast implies Bitcoin would become around 10 times as large as the current US M2 money supply, nearly four times as large as the US equity market today, and nearly double current global GDP.”
Puckrin added that the path would require about 53% CAGR.
He said:
“The prediction would also imply a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of around 53% per annum.”
‘AI deflation engine’ and policy response
Burnett argued an “AI deflation engine” could create persistent deflationary pressure through automation and cost reductions.
In a debt-based fiat system, he said deflation can strain credit markets because liabilities remain fixed in nominal terms.
Burnett said:
“As AI drives real-economy deflation, central banks and fiscal authorities expand liquidity to prevent a deflationary spiral.”
Digital credit and treasury-firm demand
The report also points to “digital credit” models promoted by companies including Strategy, where publicly traded securities backed by large Bitcoin balance sheets are used to raise capital to buy more Bitcoin.
Burnett said these products could create a reflexive loop between yield demand and Bitcoin accumulation.
For a benchmark comparison, Cointelegraph noted ARK Invest previously projected a 2030 bull-case target of $1.5 million and a bear-case target of $300,000.
