Key Takeaways
- A Strait of Hormuz closure by Iran could sharply impact bitcoin and other risk assets.
- Long-term bitcoin holders added 30,784 BTC (worth $3.3 billion) to accumulation wallets on June 11, 2025.
- Bitcoin's long-term outlook is tied more to US dollar weakness than immediate geopolitical tensions.
Bitcoin’s price has remained resilient despite recent geopolitical tensions, including an Israeli airstrike on Iran.
However, Coin Bureau founder and analyst Nic Puckrin cautioned that the biggest immediate risk to bitcoin and other risk assets is the potential closure of the Strait of Hormuz by Iran.
The narrow waterway is responsible for nearly 20% of the world’s oil shipments.
“The biggest risk is if Iran were to close the Strait of Hormuz, which ferries nearly 20% of the world’s oil supply. If it does, oil will see a massive spike, and risk assets will fall off a cliff. And, if this happens over the weekend, the market that trades 24/7 — crypto — will once again take the hit.”
He added that while short-term price action is sensitive to developments in the Israel-Iran conflict, bitcoin’s long-term outlook is more closely tied to macroeconomic factors, such as the declining value of the US dollar, which has recently reached a three-year low.
Long-term holders accumulate despite uncertainty
Despite ongoing macro and geopolitical uncertainty, long-term bitcoin holders continue to increase their positions.
According to CryptoQuant analyst Burak Kesmeci, wallets that have never sold bitcoin and have been active over the last seven years saw a daily inflow of 30,784 BTC (about $3.3 billion) on June 11, the largest for 2025. This pushed total holdings in these accumulation addresses to 2.91 million BTC, with an average entry price of around $64,000.
Bitcoin remains closely watched by both retail and institutional investors as its market role evolves.
