Anthony Scaramucci says Bitcoin’s bear market still fits the familiar four-year cycle, even if institutional demand has softened some of the usual volatility.
Cycle still in play
The SkyBridge founder said Bitcoin’s traditional pattern has been “muted” by institutional participation and inflows into US spot ETFs, but not erased.
He argued that long-term holders helped drive the current downturn by selling around the $100,000 psychological level, turning the cycle into a self-reinforcing pattern.
He said:
“We’re in a four-year cycle, and there were some traditional whales, some OG’s, that believe in the four-year cycle, and guess what happens in life when you believe in something? You create a self-fulfilling prophecy.”
Scaramucci said Bitcoin will likely remain volatile for much of the year before prices begin rising again in the fourth quarter of 2026.
Expectations were upended
He said many investors, including himself, expected Bitcoin to reach $150,000 in 2025, helped by President Donald Trump’s pro-crypto stance and a friendlier regulatory backdrop.
That view broke down after the October sell-off, when Bitcoin fell from an all-time high near $126,000 to about $60,000.
Scaramucci said markets often move against consensus and pointed to the period after the FTX collapse, when Bitcoin bottomed in late 2022 and began recovering in early 2023:
“It was at a period of great disinterest and great apathy that the bull market started again.”
He described the current downturn as a “garden variety” correction consistent with prior Bitcoin drawdowns.
Geopolitics add pressure
Bitcoin fell below $69,000 on Saturday as the war in Iran entered its third week, adding pressure to risk assets.
The S&P 500 fell about 1.3% on Friday and had closed below its 200-day moving average a day earlier.
Some analysts now warn Bitcoin could fall as much as 50% in 2026 if its positive correlation with equities continues.
