Retail crypto traders are scanning the market for signs it has bottomed, trying to time when to buy back in, according to sentiment platform Santiment.
Santiment said retail participants are looking for proof that others are quitting, a behavior it said often appears near market lows.
‘Capitulation’ trends on social media
Santiment linked the shift to the word “capitulation,” which it said has become a top-trending term across crypto social media.
The term typically refers to investors selling out of fear the market will not recover, a dynamic analysts watch when assessing potential bottoms.
Santiment said in its Saturday report:
“Retail traders are trying to meta-analyze the market, looking for signs of others quitting to time their own entries, which often happens near bottoms.”
Santiment: the bottom may have passed
Santiment argued that if traders are waiting for an obvious capitulation signal, the market may have already turned.
It said:
“If everyone is waiting for ‘capitulation,’ the bottom might have already happened while they were waiting for a clearer sign.”
Google Trends data showed searches for “crypto capitulation” rising from 11 to 58 between the weeks ending Feb. 1 and Feb. 8.
Bitcoin drop and fear gauge
The commentary comes after bitcoin fell as low as $60,000 on Thursday, its lowest level since October 2024.
Over the past 30 days, Bitcoin has fallen 24.27% and was trading around $68,970 at publication, according to CoinMarketCap.
Crypto market sentiment also weakened, with the Bitcoin Fear and Greed Index dropping deeper into “Extreme Fear” on Sunday, printing a score of 7.
Some market observers pushed back on bottom calls.
Market analyst Caleb Franzen said capitulation can happen more than once in bear markets, while crypto analyst Ted argued Friday’s sell-off “looks like capitulation, but it’s not the cycle bottom.”
