River published a research report on September 2 arguing that most long-term investors should hold at least 10% of their portfolio in bitcoin.
Why the 60/40 stopped working
Report author Sam Baker wrote that the classic mix of 60% stocks and 40% bonds depended on conditions that have since reversed, including falling yields, low inflation, and a government that could credibly repay its lenders.
US national debt crossed $40 trillion in August 2026, and net interest costs have nearly tripled in five years.
Baker put the problem bluntly:
“A 40% allocation to bonds today means lending 40% of your savings to the most indebted government in history, to be repaid in a currency that same government has every reason to debase.”
River also pushed back on the common belief that equities protect savers from a shrinking dollar, noting that the stock market fell 45.3% over 13 years in the 1970s while gold rose 514% after inflation.
According to the report:
“Stocks fail as an inflation hedge exactly when it matters most: when inflation runs high for prolonged periods of time.”
Sizing the allocation
Bitcoin currently makes up 0.5% of the world’s financial assets, which River treats as the absolute minimum any portfolio should hold.
The report described that figure as a starting point rather than a destination:
“We see 0.5% as a floor, not a target.”
Swapping part of the bond sleeve for bitcoin, River found that a 10% weight grew $10,000 into $60,595 over the past decade, compared with $25,364 for the untouched 60/40, while the worst peak-to-trough loss widened by just six percentage points.
On the question of volatility, the report concluded:
“At a 10% weight, bitcoin’s volatility has been a manageable cost attached to a substantial benefit.”
What broader ownership means for price
Only about 4% of people worldwide own any bitcoin, yet 29 of the top 30 US Registered Investment Advisors now hold it, mostly through spot ETFs, at a median allocation of 0.10%.
A Bitwise survey cited in the report found the share of advisors allocating to crypto rose from 22% in 2024 to 32% in 2025.
River expects $1.3 trillion to $5.3 trillion of net inflows over the next three to five years, which at a 3x multiple works out to $250,000 to $840,000 per coin.
Baker framed the math simply:
“Increased demand for a fixed-supply asset can only be resolved in one way: through price.”
The report was published with bitcoin near $80,000, roughly 37% below its October 2025 high.
