Prediction markets have turned more bearish on bitcoin after a weekend sell-off that briefly pushed BTC below $75,000 on Monday.
Polymarket traders priced a 72% chance that bitcoin falls below $65,000 in 2026, with nearly $1 million in volume on the contract.
Other large wagers included implied odds of 61% for BTC dropping below $55,000, and 54% for bitcoin reclaiming $100,000 by year-end.
Downside bets rise after post-election gains fade
The shift in betting odds comes as bitcoin has erased gains made after President Donald Trump’s November 2024 election win.
The drawdown also put pressure on Strategy, the largest publicly listed bitcoin holder.
Bitcoin’s price fell below Strategy’s average purchase cost for the first time since late 2023.
Analysts cite bear trend and liquidity conditions
CryptoQuant reiterated that a bear market has been in place since November 2025, when bitcoin fell below its 365-day moving average.
CryptoQuant head of research Julio Moreno wrote on X:
“Don’t try to find bottoms after a new leg down. Bear market bottoms take months to form.”
Quantum Economics CEO Mati Greenspan said bitcoin’s primary purpose is not price appreciation.
He wrote that bitcoin’s “main use case is to provide a form of money that is independent of governments and banks.”
Global Macro Investor founder Raoul Pal separately linked the downturn to tight US liquidity conditions rather than bitcoin-specific factors.
Forecasts and Polymarket’s legal pressure
A potential drop below $65,000 would run counter to some forecasts from major firms.
Grayscale previously said bitcoin could surpass an all-time high of $126,000 by June 2026.
Standard Chartered and Bernstein have projected $150,000 in 2026, after revising earlier targets amid slower inflows into US spot bitcoin ETFs.
