Polymarket traders are assigning relatively low odds to bitcoin reaching $150,000 before 2027, even as several analysts have forecast a strong 2026.
Polymarket odds by price level
In the Polymarket market titled “What price will Bitcoin hit before 2027?”, traders currently give bitcoin a 21% chance of hitting $150,000.
Odds step down across higher targets.
Polymarket shows a 45% probability for $120,000.
It assigns 35% odds to $130,000.
It gives $140,000 a 28% chance.
Traders appear most confident in $100,000, which is priced at 80%.
Four-year cycle questions linger
The report noted it is unclear why traders are cautious, but pointed to uncertainty around bitcoin’s traditional four-year cycle tied to halving events.
It also referenced that bitcoin closed 2025 in the red.
Analysts stay bullish on 2026
Despite Polymarket’s pricing, analysts from Standard Chartered, Strategy and Bernstein who have predicted bitcoin could reach $150,000 in 2026.
Fundstrat’s Tom Lee is more optimistic, forecasting $200,000 to $250,000.
Macro and policy catalysts cited
There are also expectations that President Donald Trump will name a new Federal Reserve chair in coming weeks, with markets anticipating interest-rate cuts.
