PlanB, the pseudonymous analyst behind the stock-to-flow model, outlined four potential paths for bitcoin’s current drawdown in a Feb. 4 post and video.
He said bitcoin closed January at $78,000, about 40% below the cycle’s $126,000 all-time high.
On his chart, the 200-week moving average was $58,000 and realized price was $55,000.
Four scenarios
First, PlanB described a historical “worst case” 80% decline from the $126,000 peak, implying roughly $25,000.
Second, he cited a more typical bottom near the 200-week moving average and realized price, placing a target zone around $50,000–$60,000.
Third, he floated a shallower retrace that holds just above the prior cycle’s all-time high near $69,000–$70,000.
Fourth, he said a near-term low may already be in, referencing $72,900 and about $72,800 as possible bottoms.
Bitcoin later traded as low as $69,031, which would invalidate scenario #4.
RSI
He pointed to January’s RSI ending at 49, which he treats as a shift into a downtrend.
PlanB said in the video:
“RSI here, 49. RSI, as you know, is an index between 0 and 100. And everything above 50 is an uptrend. Everything below 50 is downtrend.”
Stock-to-flow and the halving cycle
PlanB reiterated his stock-to-flow value signal remains around $500,000, while emphasizing it is not designed to identify tops or bottoms.
He also argued the four-year cycle template may be shifting, noting his framework typically sees peaks in the first or second year after a halving, but said that “it didn’t happen after 2024 halving.”
