Half of Bitcoin’s monthly closes over the past two years have been positive, a pattern economist Timothy Peterson says points to higher prices by December.
Peterson’s 24-month signal
Peterson wrote on X:
“50% of the past 24 months have been positive. This implies a 88% chance that Bitcoin will be higher 10 months from now.”
He said he uses the share of positive months in any rolling 24-month period to spot potential inflection points.
Recent performance and current price
CoinGlass data showed Bitcoin posted gains in January, April, May, June, July, and September 2025, while the other six months finished lower.
Bitcoin was trading around $68,173 at publication time, nearly 25% below its level at the start of the year.
Traders split on what comes next
MN Trading Capital founder Michael van de Poppe said he expected the coming week to be positive and described a potential “massive candle” after “a streak of five red months.”
Veteran trader Peter Brandt, however, told Cointelegraph:
“Real bottom will not occur until October 2026.”
Sentiment and seasonality
The Bitcoin fear and greed chart showed extreme risk-off conditions after the index printed an “Extreme Fear” score of 9 on Sunday.
CoinGlass data cited by Cointelegraph also indicated November has been Bitcoin’s strongest month on average since 2013, with an average return of 41.13%.
Polymarket traders were giving December a 17% chance of being Bitcoin’s best month of 2026, just behind November at 18%.
Santiment added that fewer Bitcoin price predictions on social media was a healthy sign as sentiment returned toward neutral.
