Oil prices fell Monday after reports that the U.S. captured Venezuela’s President Nicolás Maduro in a weekend operation, defying expectations of an immediate crude spike.
Bitcoin, meanwhile, held steady and pushed higher, trading as high as $93,343 as markets treated the event as a macro story tied to inflation, rates, and liquidity.
Why oil fell
Brent dipped toward the low $60s, while WTI fell about 2% before stabilizing near $57.
Traders appeared to assume Venezuela’s oil infrastructure remained intact and that near-term supply disruptions were limited.
A separate view also emerged that a U.S.-backed transition could eventually increase Venezuelan output, adding supply to a market already seen as well-supplied.
The U.S. Energy Information Administration expects Brent to average about $55 in the first quarter and remain around that level through 2026.
OPEC+ also kept production policy steady into early 2026 and scheduled its next meeting for Feb. 1.
What traders are watching in bitcoin
Bitcoin’s response was framed less as a direct reaction to geopolitics and more as a function of shifting inflation expectations.
Cheaper oil can reduce headline inflation, which can influence rate pricing and broader risk appetite.
For bitcoin, that can matter through liquidity conditions rather than any “war hedge” narrative.
Longer-term Venezuela supply bets
The market focus appeared to be on the longer runway for Venezuelan supply.
The Wall Street Journal described the challenge as a multi-year infrastructure and investment effort that could require billions.
JPMorgan has discussed a path toward roughly the mid-1 million barrels per day range within a couple of years under a transition scenario.
Goldman has floated a scenario where output rises toward 2 million barrels per day by the end of the decade.
Reuters also reported JPMorgan said Venezuelan sovereign and PDVSA bonds could jump by up to 10 points on the capture.
