NYDIG analysts have raised concerns about the outlook for bitcoin treasury firms as the premium between their stock prices and the underlying net asset value (NAV) of their bitcoin holdings continues to shrink, even as bitcoin trades near record highs.
Premiums compress as investor concerns grow
Greg Cipolaro, NYDIG’s global head of research, noted that firms like Strategy and Metaplanet have seen their share price premiums compress.
He cited several reasons including investor anxiety over forthcoming supply unlocks, shifting objectives among management teams, increased share issuance, profit-taking, and limited differentiation across treasury strategies. Cipolaro stated:
“Investor anxiety over forthcoming supply unlocks, changing corporate objectives from DAT management teams, tangible increases in share issuance, investor profit-taking, and limited differentiation across treasury strategies.”
Share buybacks suggested as stabilizing tool
The narrowing premium raises the risk of further volatility, especially as many treasury firms await mergers or financing arrangements to go public.
Cipolaro warned of a potential “substantial wave of selling” by existing shareholders.
He advised that if company shares fall below NAV, stock buybacks may be the most effective way to support share prices. Cipolaro recommended:
“If we were to give one piece of advice to DATs, it’s to save some of the funds raised aside to support shares via buybacks.”
Slowing pace of corporate bitcoin accumulation
According to a CryptoQuant report, bitcoin-buying companies now hold a record 840,000 BTC, with Strategy accounting for 76% of that total.
However, the pace of accumulation has slowed:
Strategy’s average monthly purchase dropped to 1,200 BTC in August, down from its 2025 peak of 14,000 BTC.
Other firms have also reduced their acquisition amounts by 86% from earlier in the year. This has led to growth rates for treasury holdings declining significantly.
Market impact and outlook
Bitcoin’s price has remained relatively flat over the last 24 hours, trading around $111,200, and is down over 10% since its August peak.
The recent slowdown in corporate purchases and narrowing NAV premiums suggest that bitcoin treasury stocks could be in for a turbulent period unless firms take corrective action.
