Bitcoin’s recent parallel move with US software stocks is being overread, according to NYDIG head of research Greg Cipolaro.
He said the rally looks more like a shared response to macro conditions than bitcoin trading as a proxy for the sector.
Why the charts can mislead
Cipolaro wrote that the visual similarity between indexed prices has fueled claims that bitcoin and software equities have “structurally converged.”
He said those conclusions go too far.
Cipolaro said in a Friday note:
“While the visual fit of their indexed price is compelling, the conclusion that Bitcoin and software equities have structurally converged, or that they share common exposure to themes such as AI or quantum risk, is overstated.”
Correlations rose beyond software
Cipolaro said bitcoin’s 90-day rolling correlation with software stocks has increased since its early-October all-time high above $126,000.
He added that correlations with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq have also recently risen, suggesting the shift is not isolated to software names:
“The change is not isolated to software stocks.”
Most of bitcoin’s moves aren’t equity-driven
Even with elevated correlations, Cipolaro said most of bitcoin’s price movement remains “unexplained by equities.”
Cipolaro said:
“The majority of Bitcoin’s price movement remains unexplained by equities.”
He added that bitcoin does not appear to be priced as a hedge against macro conditions, contributing to frustration that it has not “act[ed] like gold.”
Cipolaro also pointed to bitcoin’s distinct market structure and drivers, including network activity and adoption trends, as well as regulatory and policy developments.
He said that differentiation supports bitcoin’s role as a portfolio diversifier, even while cross-asset correlations are elevated.
