Key Takeaways
- MicroStrategy's S&P 500 chances depend on Bitcoin staying above $95,240 through June 30.
- A historical analysis shows a 91% probability that Bitcoin will not drop more than 10% in the remaining six days of Q2.
- Strategy would be the second bitcoin-related company to join the S&P 500 in 2025, after Coinbase.
Financial analyst Jeff Walton has placed the odds of MicroStrategy (MSTR), known as Strategy, joining the S&P 500 at 91%, provided Bitcoin’s price does not drop more than 10% before June 30.
Walton explained:
“I believe there is about a 91% chance of MSTR qualifying for the S&P 500 in Q2.”
Bitcoin price threshold is key
To remain eligible, Strategy needs cumulative positive earnings over the past four quarters.
Walton noted that if Bitcoin falls below $95,240, MicroStrategy—currently holding the largest public company bitcoin stack at 592,345 BTC—would not meet the earnings requirement.
He bases this forecast on Bitcoin trading near $106,200 at the time of his analysis and the historical probability of a >10% drop over a 6-day period since September 2014, which has occurred only 8.7% of the time.
Walton explained:
“So 8.7% of those 6-day periods have dropped more than 10%, the other 91% of those periods have not dropped 10%.”
As the quarter closes, the odds improve: over the final five days, there’s a 92.4% chance Bitcoin won’t drop more than 10%, rising to 97.6% on the last day.
Growing industry acceptance
If successful, Strategy would become the second bitcoin-related firm to join the S&P 500 in 2025, following Coinbase’s inclusion in May.
Strategy was also added to the Nasdaq-100 Index in December 2024. Meryem Habibi, chief revenue officer of Bitpace, commented:
“It cements the legitimacy of an entire asset class.”
