Macro trader Mel Mattison laid out a 2026 outlook on TFTC that ties geopolitics, liquidity, and bitcoin’s recent price action into a single thesis.
He argued the “rules-based order” is giving way to a multipolar world focused on national interest and resource security.
Mattison said:
“The rules-based order was essentially a scam… that started to fall apart. So, we’re no longer enforcing it. So, it basically means nothing.”
Bitcoin as a liquidity trade
Mattison said bitcoin’s late-2025 weakness was more about liquidity and market mechanics than a simple equity correlation:
“Bitcoin is like a global liquidity correlated asset.”
He pointed to tax-loss harvesting through spot bitcoin ETFs, and the lack of a wash-sale rule for spot bitcoin, as factors that amplified year-end selling pressure.
A $150,000 target and timing risk
Mattison repeated a key price target for the first half of 2026:
“I think we’re going to 150,000 in the first half of the year.”
He also warned that the best entries tend to appear when uncertainty is highest, and that the “sell time” often comes after pessimists capitulate.
Tariffs, the Fed, and volatility
Mattison flagged a potential Supreme Court decision that could curb tariff powers as a near-term catalyst for a sharp but brief selloff.
He said he expects liquidity to expand over the next one to three years, with the Federal Reserve and banking system absorbing more Treasuries over time.
He added that energy prices and AI-driven productivity could help offset inflation concerns as balance sheets grow.
